Encuestas que más se acercaron a los resultados finales de las elecciones regionales

The analysis of Colombia’s recent regional elections shows that, although polls often generated uncertainty or criticism during the campaign, several firms achieved notable accuracy in their final projections. The research identifies the most accurate predictors, revealing that the margin of error was generally well controlled and that certain firms outperformed others in specific geographic areas, such as Bogotá, Medellín, and Barranquilla. The relevance to the open data field lies in the need to critically assess the quality and transparency of the data sources used in electoral forecasting. By comparing actual results with published estimates, variability in methodology and the reliability of different algorithms and samples become evident. This exercise enables the data community to understand not only who was correct, but also under which technical and methodological conditions successes or failures occurred, thereby fostering a culture of verification based on quantifiable evidence. In conclusion, this study underscores the importance of accountability in the polling industry and provides valuable lessons for future opinion research. By dispelling the perception that all polls are equally inaccurate or misleading, it promotes a more rigorous use of data to analyze social and political trends. This enriches the open data ecosystem by offering documented cases of success and failure that can serve as references for improving the accuracy and trustworthiness of future projections.

Source: larepublica.co
Published on 2023-10-31

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