INE: Baja fecundidad y Covid-19 impactaron en los resultados del Censo 2024

The 2024 Census in Bolivia reveals a significant population decline driven by two main social dynamics: a sharp drop in fertility rates and the demographic impact of the pandemic. The fertility rate has fallen dramatically from historical highs to approximately 2.1 children per woman, aligning with global replacement levels. This shift reflects broader societal changes, including later marriages and increased access to family planning, resulting in a population structure that is aging and stagnating rather than expanding as previously anticipated. At the same time, the pandemic caused a substantial excess mortality that exceeded official projections. The statistical discrepancy arises because demographic models, including those used for national forecasts, could not anticipate the sudden and widespread mortality events of 2020. Consequently, the actual population is significantly lower than the estimates made in prior years, illustrating the limitations of predictive models when facing unforeseen global health crises. This article is highly relevant to open data because it demonstrates how real-world data can challenge and correct existing statistical projections, highlighting the importance of transparency in official statistics. It underscores the necessity for open data initiatives to incorporate emerging, unexpected variables and to validate preliminary findings against independent sources, such as civil registry records. By openly acknowledging these discrepancies, institutions build trust and ensure that data reflects social realities rather than outdated assumptions, which is crucial for accurate policy planning and public accountability.

Source: lostiempos.com
Published on 2024-08-31

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