ESdiario enters Tezanos' kitchen: the pro-Sanchez deviation that CIS does not correct

ESdiario enters Tezanos' kitchen: the pro-Sanchez deviation that CIS does not correct

The CIS barometer presents a disproportionate electoral advantage for the PSOE, sparking strong controversy over the validity of its methodology. Experts in sociology and data analysis have identified a sampling bias that systematically overrepresents left-wing voting, as revealed by examining respondents’ vote recall, which does not accurately reflect the actual results of past elections. The relevance to open data lies in the fact that the CIS published its microdata, enabling independent entities such as the Ateneo del Dato to replicate the study using different techniques. This transparency demonstrated that, when applying a different recalibration to the same raw data, the PSOE’s advantage shrank dramatically to a statistical tie, highlighting how methodological differences in handling uncertainty and sample selection significantly impact final results. This case underscores the critical importance of transparency and accessibility of raw data in social research. By being able to verify and reanalyze primary sources, the academic and citizen communities can challenge the biases inherent in official statistical models, fostering a culture of democratic scrutiny in which the quality of empirical evidence depends as much on open data collection and interpretation as on the data themselves.

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